Financial analysts say OpenAI is quickly burning through its money.

 

 

Financial analysts say OpenAI is quickly burning through its money.

The company reportedly burned through over $8 billion in 2025 alone.

A prominent financial analyst is warning that OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, may be on track to run out of money within the next year and a half.

 

In a recent New York Times essay, Sebastian Mallaby of the Council on Foreign Relations argues that OpenAI’s business model is fundamentally riskier than that of tech giants like Google, Meta, and Microsoft, which can fund costly AI research with profits from their existing businesses.

 

By contrast, OpenAI is largely dependent on outside investment while committing to spend more than a trillion dollars on AI development by the end of the decade, even as user willingness to pay for ChatGPT subscriptions remains limited and new revenue streams like advertising are only beginning to take shape. 

 

Mallaby frames his prediction not as a verdict against artificial intelligence itself, but as a sign that OpenAI may be one of the losers in an increasingly expensive race. He forecasts that, if the company cannot secure enough capital, it could end up being absorbed by a cash-rich giant such as Microsoft or Amazon, becoming a historical footnote despite its early fame. 

Other observers similarly describe 2026 as a “make-or-break” year for OpenAI, comparing its aggressive growth and high spending to the failed coworking startup WeWork. Even so, Mallaby suggests that an OpenAI collapse would not undermine the broader AI boom; rather, it would mark the downfall of what he calls the industry’s most hype-driven player, whose rapid rise and potential fall may still leave a lasting legacy on how AI is built and financed.

References

Mallaby, S. (2026, January 13). OpenAI, the WeWork of artificial intelligence? The New York Times.

Tangermann, V. (2026, January 14). Financial expert says OpenAI is on the verge of running out of money. Futurism.